Posted by: taureanglobal | March 25, 2009

Housing not back yet

Well, it’s been a week since the February figures for housing starts were released, and they were up 22% from January, if you missed the hullabaloo.

It’s also of little note. This is what we call a “dead cat bounce”, for those of you not familiar, e.g. if the numbers fall so drastically for such a long period of time, they have to go back for a short period of time at some point.

Election junkies will remember how McCain’s polls surged briefly for a time in mid-October, and it obviously meant little. When compared to housing starts for February 2008, numbers are down more than 47%. Hardly what we’d call a comeback.

“With new home sales still falling and the months’ supply at a record, there is no reason for homebuilding to rise,” wrote Ian Sheperdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in a research note. “This is a temporary rebound, not a recovery.”

Housing market’s still got a long ways to go, folks.


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